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DECEMBER 30,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

OBAMA RISES – Obama continues to show improvement in his approval ratings.  His Gallup rating stands at 48% approval, 48% disapproval, a tie.  First time approval has come up to disapproval since the middle of 2013.  I can't really account for this.  Last year at this time only 42% approved of the president, and 52% disapproved.  Maybe is getting a sympathy vote following the drubbing his party took in last month's midterms.

SHOCKING, A RETURN TO SLAVERY – From London's Daily Mail:  "Target is under fire from angry consumers over its use of predominantly white models to promote a new clothing line inspired by the recent remake of hit musical Annie, which is led by an African American actress.   A Change.org petition issued by motivational speaker L'Sean Rinique Shelton, based in Bear, Delaware, calls for the retail giant to remove the 'disrespectful' in-store displays and apologize to the movie's 11-year-old star, Quvenzhané Wallis.  'In the current stench of racism and division amongst Americans, why would Target singlehandedly disrespect Quvenzhané Wallis and add more pain to injury as it relates to race relations?' poses Ms Shelton, a mother-of-three."  One of the great issues of our time, I'm sure. 

GRIM TRUTHS – From Fox:  "WASHINGTON – The number of law enforcement officers killed by firearms in the U.S. jumped by 56 percent this year and included 15 ambush assaults, according to a report released Tuesday.  The annual report by the nonprofit National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund found that 50 officers were killed by guns this year, compared to 32 in 2013.  In all, the report found that 126 federal, local, tribal and territorial officers were killed in the line of duty in 2014. That's a 24 percent jump from last year's 102 on-duty deaths. Shootings were the leading cause of officer deaths in 2014 followed by traffic-related fatalities, at 49."  Al Sharpton could not be reached for comment.

WHOOPS – From Real Science:  "The area of Arctic sea ice is nearly identical to 30 years ago.  Arctic sea ice is cyclically returning to the NSIDC cherry-picked date of 1979.  The area of sea ice on Earth has moved into unprecedented territory. When it was declining, they blamed it on global warming. Now that it is increasing, they blame it on global warming.  The amount of solar energy in Antarctica is at its peak for the year, so the record amount of ice is having maximum cooling effect on the planet.  All of these things are the exact opposite of what experts forecast. Hansen predicted peak sea ice loss in the Weddell Sea, right where the peak gain has occurred."  Don't tell Al Gore.  He has so many troubles, what with paying the electric bills for his mansions.  Be kind.

December 30, 2014       Permalink

BARONE ON CONGRESS – AT 8:42 A.M. ET:  This is a must-read – an analysis of the makeup of the new Congress, compared with the mid-1940s.  Michael Barone is one of our best political reporters and historians.  He shows how American politics has evolved in our lifetime.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Before Christmas, Arizona finished its 2nd Congressional District recount, showing Republican Martha McSally beating incumbent Democrat Ron Barber by 167 votes. This means there will be 247 Republicans in the House in the 114th Congress — one more than was elected to the House in the 80th Congress in 1946. It’s the most Republican House since the one elected in 1928, a year when very few of today’s voters were alive.

But while the party numbers are almost precisely the same in the Houses elected this year and 68 years ago, the composition of the two parties’ caucuses (the Republicans call theirs a conference) is sharply different.

One reason is that the reapportionment of House seats following the seven censuses from 1950 to 2010 has shifted many seats from the Northeast, Midwest and Mississippi Valley to Texas, South Atlantic and Western states.

Altogether, 100 seats have been transferred from 27 states to 17 other states. Only six small states have the same number of seats as they did in 1946. The big losers have been New York (down 18 seats), Pennsylvania (down 15), Illinois (down 8) and Ohio (down 7). The big gainers have been California (up 30), Florida (up 21) and Texas (up 15).

The House Republican Conference that assembled in January 1947 was dominated by members from New York (28), Pennsylvania (28), Illinois (20) and Ohio (19). Most came from courthouse towns and sought to roll back the New Deal. They provided the impetus behind the Taft-Hartley Act, which limited the power of labor unions — a law that passed despite Harry Truman’s veto and is still in effect today.

They had the votes to override because the House Democratic Caucus included many conservatives in 1947. A majority of its members — 117 of 189 — came from the South (defined here as the 11 old Confederate states plus West Virginia, Kentucky and Oklahoma).

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  Print it and keep it.  You'll be referring to Barone's analysis for a long time.

December 30, 2014        Permalink

THE COST OF ANTI-COP RHETORIC – AT 8:31 A.M. ET:   Two police officers have already been assassinated in New York.  There have been attempts on others around the country since.  So this story should not be surprising.  A price is being paid.  From the New York Post: 

With cops on edge following the assassination of two patrol officers on a Brooklyn street, many officers have started turning a blind eye to some minor crimes, sources told The Post, while a union mandate that two patrol cars respond to all police calls has led to slower response times to non-emergencies.

“I’m not writing any summonses. Do you think I’m going to stand there so someone can shoot me or hit me in the head with an ax?” One cop said Sunday, referring to the Dec. 20 slayings and another recent attack on the NYPD.

“I’m concerned about my safety,” the cop added. “I want to go to home to my wife and kids.”

An NYPD supervisor noted, “My guys are writing almost no summonses, and probably only making arrests when they have to — like when a store catches a shoplifter.”

And the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association directive for cops to respond with at least two patrol cars has resulted in a manpower shortage that’s delaying response times to non-emergencies — such as burglaries or car crashes without injuries — to as much as four hours, sources said.

COMMENT:  The real losers here will be members of minority communities, who depend on police coverage for their very lives.  Maybe, if something horrible happens, they can call Al Sharpton.  Or Eric Holder.  They have police cars, don't they?

December 30, 2014       Permalink

THE SAD SEARCH – AT 8:20 A.M. ET:  Now we know that the Malaysian airliner went down, we know where, and we see the aftermath.  From Fox: 

At least 40 bodies have been found in the area where AirAsia Flight 8501 last made contact with air traffic controllers, along with debris from the plane.

The bodies were found in the Java Sea about six miles from the plane’s last known point of contact. The plane disappeared Sunday with 162 people on board traveling from Surbaya, Indonesia to Singapore.

The bodies were were not wearing life jackets, according to Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Director, SB Supriyadi.

Rescue workers were shown on local TV being lowered on ropes from a hovering helicopter to retrieve bodies. Efforts were hindered by 6-foot waves and strong winds, Supriyadi said, adding that several bodies were later picked up by a navy ship.

"The warship Bung Tomo has retrieved 40 bodies and the number is growing. They are very busy now," a navy spokesman added.

Sky News also reports that the "shadow" of a jet has been spotted on the seabed.

COMMENT:  Please note that the Malaysian jet that disappeared last March is still missing.   That remains the great airliner mystery of our time.

December 30,  2014     Permalink

DECEMBER 29,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:43 P.M. ET: 

GEEZ – If true, what an embarrassment.  From The Politico:  "FBI agents investigating the Sony Pictures hack were briefed Monday by a security firm that says its research points to laid-off Sony staff, not North Korea, as the perpetrator — another example of the continuing whodunit blame game around the devastating attack.  Even the unprecedented decision to release details of an ongoing FBI investigation and President Barack Obama publicly blaming the hermit authoritarian regime hasn’t quieted a chorus of well-qualified skeptics who say the evidence just doesn’t add up."  The official U.S. Government position is that North Korea did it.  Of course, the official U.S. Government position is that President Obama's election would make the oceans recede.  More coming on this.

HOW SAD – From Breitbart:  "In a brawl apparently instigated using social media, a thousand or more young teen black girls descended on Monroeville Mall outside Pittsburgh Friday night, resulting in the mall being closed as a massive brawl broke out. An investigation is ongoing, including via social media, although no arrests were reportedly made at the time.  Many of the teens used their phones to capture video of the events and that too is now making the rounds via social media."  Unless these social pathologies are dealt with, black America will be stuck in a tragic downward spiral.  Pat Moynihan warned about this a half century ago.  For his troubles he was called a racist.

MILESTONE – From Reuters:  "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. population is seen at 320.09 million people as of Jan. 1, up 0.73 percent from a year earlier, the Census Bureau said on Monday.  The Census Bureau said in a statement that the figure represents an increase of about 11.35 million people, or 3.67 percent, since the last population count on April 1, 2010.  'In January 2015, the U.S. is expected to experience a birth every eight seconds and one death every 12 seconds. Meanwhile, net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 33 seconds,' the Census Bureau said."  At least we're reproducing our population.  Most of the West European nations aren't, and they will eventually fade away, or become Islamicized. 

IT'S GLOBAL WARMING – From Accuweather:  "As cold air continues to plunge southward in the West, a storm will produce rare New Year's Eve and New Year's Day snow for Las Vegas, the Mojave Desert and the mountains in the region.  Pack some warm clothes and perhaps winter boots if you are heading to the Southwest for the New Year's holiday. Motorists heading over the mountains should expect delays due to snow-covered roads.  Soon after snow falls on parts of the central Rockies and Plains, a new winter storm will develop over the Southwest states."  When will we ever show proper respect for Al Gore?

December 29, 2014       Permalink 

THE AIRLINER – AT 10:34 A.M. ET:   Does this sound familiar?  They still haven't found the missing Malaysian airliner.  The plane had (or has) 161 souls on board.   From CNN:

(CNN) -- The search for a missing airliner with 162 people aboard will expand Tuesday, the Indonesian government announced.

Four additional areas will be searched, the national search and rescue agency said.

Seven zones were patrolled Monday, the second day of searching for AirAsia Flight QZ8501. So far, the search has been fruitless.

"Our early conjecture is that the plane is in the bottom of the sea," said Bambang Sulistyo, the head of the search and rescue agency. That belief is based on the plane's flight track and last known coordinates.

Not exactly a comforting name for a search-and-rescue guy:  Bambang.

France dispatched two investigators to Indonesia. They are due to arrive in Jakarta on Monday, France's Foreign Ministry said.

The missing plane is made by Airbus, a French company.

Rescuers say weather was probably a factor in the plane's disappearance.

COMMENT:  We're told that the pilot asked for approval for a change in altitude to avoid weather conditions, but was turned down...on grounds there was too much traffic in the area.

Hmm.  Why was this airliner the only one to ask for a flight change because of weather?   All those other planes in the area were facing the same weather.  And why was this plane, by some strange coincidence, the only one to "disappear"? 

No sign of wreckage.  No "pinging" from the emergency transmitter in the black box that goes on if the plane has a sudden impact.  No nothing. 

They told us initially they knew exactly where the plane was when air traffic control lost contact.  Now they're expanding the search area.

Doesn't feel right.  How do we know that call from the plane asking for a change in altitude was legit? 

Stay tuned.

December 29, 2014       Permalink

WHO WE FIGHT – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  It's easy to forget, at holiday time, that we're still involved in struggles in the Mideast, and that the enemy is getting more ferocious, not less.  ISIS has been somewhat slowed in Iraq, but not in Syria.  And there are regular reports on its attempts to infiltrate into Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestinian areas.  From TIME:   

ISIS executed 1,878 people in Syria over the past six months, including 120 of its own members, a U.K.-based Syrian human-rights group said on Sunday.

Most of the people killed by the Islamist terrorist group were civilians, including 930 members of a Sunni Muslim tribe from eastern Syria, Reuters reports, citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

All but four of those executed within ISIS’s own ranks were fighters trying to leave and go back home.

ISIS, which has declared a caliphate across a broad swath of Syria and Iraq, and regards breaches of strict Islamic law as punishable by death, frequently releases videos of its executions, including the killings of two U.S. journalists and three aid workers from the U.S. and Britain.

COMMENT:  Despite all the announcements from the White House that the U.S. is "winding down" its military action overseas, the reality is that the enemy hasn't gotten the e-mail.  As we pull out of Afghanistan, we can expect increased Taliban activity.  Iraq is fragile, threatened not only by ISIS, but by a large number of Iranian "advisers," with whom the United States is actually working.

The war on terror isn't over, or nearly over.  In some respects it's just begun.

December 29, 2014       Permalink

INCIDENT IN L.A. – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Was this an attempt to repeat the tragedy in New York?  From the Los Angeles Times: 

Two suspects fired on a police patrol car with a rifle in South Los Angeles late Sunday night, prompting a citywide tactical alert that resulted in the arrest of one suspect and a massive manhunt for the second individual, authorities said.

The shooting occurred about 9:30 p.m. as officers were driving southbound on Hoover Street near 62nd Street, said Deputy Chief Bob Green. The officers returned fire.

No officer was hurt.

Police arrested one of the suspects at the scene and recovered a rifle, Green said. A second suspect remained at large.

A three-block area around the shooting scene was immediately cordoned off as police scoured the area with search dogs. At least 60 officers were involved in the search.

A citywide tactical alert is when every available officer in the city is ordered to a specific crime scene.

The LAPD advised residents to stay indoors. “Armed suspect in the area,” the police station said on Facebook just before 11 p.m. “Please keep our officers in your thoughts and prayers!”

COMMENT:  There was a similar incident in Tampa, Florida.  Three bullets were fired at police officers as they sat in their patrol car. 

Fortunately, no one was hurt in these incidents.  But the intent is pretty clear.

December 29, 2014       Permalink

THE AMERICAN POLITICAL PICTURE – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Walter Russell Mead has written a remarkably incisive piece on the state of American politics.  He argues that liberalism, which punches hard and above its weight, is actually in sharp decline.   He writes:  "Never have liberal ideas been so firmly entrenched within America’s core elite institutions. Never have those institutions been so weak and uninfluential."  This is one of those "read the whole thing" pieces.  From The American Interest:

These are frustrating times for the American left. Legislative power has slipped from its hands; the states are more Republican than at just about any time in living memory, and as President Obama nears the end of his term, it seems far more likely than otherwise that, Republican or Democrat, his successor will stand well to the right of the incumbent. As I noted in the first essay in the series, the foreign policy disasters and the financial crash of the George W. Bush administration opened a path to the White House for the most liberal President in history and gave Democrats overwhelming majorities in the Senate and the House back in 2008. Jubilant liberals believed that a new era had dawned, and when they weren’t comparing Obama to Lincoln, they were calling him the “Democratic Reagan” who would reset politics for the left just as Reagan once did for the right.

Six years later, the dream is looking shopworn. President Obama is deeply unpopular, the Democratic majorities are gone with the wind, and poll after poll after poll demonstrates that Obamacare, the Democrats’ signature legislative accomplishment in the Age of Obama, is more of an albatross around the party’s neck than a star in its crown.

Some of this could change. The slow but persistent improvement in economic conditions has finally begun to register with voters; consumer confidence is up and, if the economy continues to improve through 2016, President Obama’s poll numbers should strengthen. The racial polarization that so tragically spiked in the last three months could gradually fade away. And the concatenation of foreign policy and security disasters from the Libyan anarchy to the series of Syria and Iraq fiascoes to the Russian invasion of Ukraine could look less frightening and less like an implosion of America’s world position in two years' time. The lame duck could still swagger off the stage in the end.

But right now that doesn’t look probable, even to liberals. Eric Alterman, one of the left’s most articulate advocates, summarizes the situation with his customary frankness in the Nation:

The Obama presidency has been a devil’s bargain for Democrats. Despite the considerable policy accomplishments to its credit, the administration’s political impact has been virtually catastrophic. Since Obama’s victory in 2008, Democrats are down seventy seats in the House and fifteen in the Senate, giving an increasingly reactionary Republican Party the power to stymie most if not all of the Democrats’ agenda. But this actually understates the damage. Democrats are now the minority in over two-thirds of the nation’s partisan state legislative chambers, their worst showing in history. In twenty-three of these, Republicans will control the governor’s office, too. (The corresponding number for Democrats is just seven.)

Alterman cites two core reasons for the disaster. On the one hand, Democrats haven’t recognized that many of the policies they like on “good government” grounds are political poison. In particular, Obamacare and the immigration amnesty are alienating voters.

COMMENT:  This is great journalism.  Save the piece and see if it projects well into the future.

December 29, 2014     Permalink